What makes a correlation statistically significant




















The sample correlation coefficient, r , quantifies the strength of the relationship. Correlations are also tested for statistical significance. Correlation also cannot accurately describe curvilinear relationships. Correlations are useful for describing simple relationships among data. For example, imagine that you are looking at a dataset of campsites in a mountain park. You want to know whether there is a relationship between the elevation of the campsite how high up the mountain it is , and the average high temperature in the summer.

For each individual campsite, you have two measures: elevation and temperature. When you compare these two variables across your sample with a correlation, you can find a linear relationship: as elevation increases, the temperature drops.

They are negatively correlated. Statistical significance is indicated with a p-value. It indicates the likelihood of obtaining the data that we are seeing if there is no effect present — in other words, in the case of the null hypothesis. For our campsite data, this would be the hypothesis that there is no linear relationship between elevation and temperature. When a p-value is used to describe a result as statistically significant, this means that it falls below a pre-defined cutoff e.

A perfect positive correlation has a value of 1, and a perfect negative correlation has a value of But in the real world, we would never expect to see a perfect correlation unless one variable is actually a proxy measure for the other. If both variables tend to increase or decrease together, the coefficient is positive, and the line that represents the correlation slopes upward.

If one variable tends to increase as the other decreases, the coefficient is negative, and the line that represents the correlation slopes downward.

The following plots show data with specific correlation values to illustrate different patterns in the strength and direction of the relationships between variables. The points fall randomly on the plot, which indicates that there is no linear relationship between the variables. Some points are close to the line but other points are far from it, which indicates only a moderate linear relationship between the variables.

The points fall close to the line, which indicates that there is a strong linear relationship between the variables. The relationship is positive because as one variable increases, the other variable also increases. The points fall close to the line, which indicates that there is a strong negative relationship between the variables.

The relationship is negative because, as one variable increases, the other variable decreases. In these results, the Pearson correlation between porosity and hydrogen is about 0. The Pearson correlation between strength and hydrogen is about The relationship between these variables is negative, which indicates that, as hydrogen and porosity increase, strength decreases.

In these results, the p-values for the correlation between porosity and hydrogen and between strength and hydrogen are both less than the significance level of 0. The p-value between strength and porosity is 0. Because the p-value is greater than the significance level of 0.

Use the Spearman correlation coefficient to examine the strength and direction of the monotonic relationship between two continuous or ordinal variables.

In a monotonic relationship, the variables tend to move in the same relative direction, but not necessarily at a constant rate. To calculate the Spearman correlation, Minitab ranks the raw data. Then, Minitab calculates the correlation coefficient on the ranked data. The test statistic to test this hypothesis is:. Where the second formula is an equivalent form of the test statistic, n is the sample size and the degrees of freedom are n This is a t-statistic and operates in the same way as other t tests.

Calculate the t-value and compare that with the critical value from the t-table at the appropriate degrees of freedom and the level of confidence you wish to maintain. If the calculated value is in the tail then cannot accept the null hypothesis that there is no linear relationship between these two independent random variables. If the calculated t-value is NOT in the tailed then cannot reject the null hypothesis that there is no linear relationship between the two variables.

A quick shorthand way to test correlations is the relationship between the sample size and the correlation. As the formula indicates, there is an inverse relationship between the sample size and the required correlation for significance of a linear relationship. With only 10 observations, the required correlation for significance is 0. Perhaps no single statistic is more misused than the correlation coefficient.

Citing correlations between health conditions and everything from place of residence to eye color have the effect of implying a cause and effect relationship. This simply cannot be accomplished with a correlation coefficient.



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